Tue 15 Sep 2009
So Is The LENO SHOW A Success? (Or, Why Do People Try To Judge Things So Quickly?)
Posted by Nick C under NBC
[8] Comments
Over 18 million people tuned in to the premiere of Jay Leno’s new show. The Late Night Chin killed during prime time. He had overwhelmingly strong numbers. He was up against the…
Wait a second…
He was up against absolutely nothing except Monday Night Football on ESPN. He provided strong 18-49 demo numbers in a 5.3 and overall it was a success. For one night, it was a success. Will it carry over tonight? I’m betting: not really. I expect some decent numbers from night 2, but not 18M+ strong. Leno basically has a week to be a “Did you see it,” kind of thing where people will tune in who hadn’t last night all week long just to see if it’s worth a damn.
So in the long run this was a huge success for NBC last night… and only last night.
Lets just see what his rating is in 5 weeks. NBC used to have great shows. What happened to NBC?
Yeah, I’m sure that while he’s up against nothing then the numbers will remain respectable (not nearly what they were last night, but respectable). And then fall to their lowest levels once the competition debuts and people sample the new shows. After a week or two then some percentage will tune in again and then we have the true picture.
As long as he keeps up enough numbers for it to be “profitable” for NBC is all that matters (to them).
I’ve got a feeling that there will be a certain night (or perhaps two nights) a week that he maintains not a great, but a decent audience. But not five nights a week. Too much other competition.
Kanye West was on as well so that only helped him.
The key is what is the definition of sucess for this show, what numbers are high enough to make it profitable and at the same time keep the affiliates from being too unhappy about their news lead in. Is it demos of 1.4, 1.8 or 2.2? They are conceding the time slot to CBS and ABC, although I suspect Jay’s propotional demographics are similar to CBS, just fewer viewers to breakdown into the various categories (his audience like that of CBS are likely older than the norm).
Well the 2nd night saw a huge drop in viewers from 18M to around 11M, and a 3.4 in the demo. 3.4 is higher than the average of shows last season for NBC, so right now it’s a “hit,” for them. We’ll see how things continue.
I actually want Jay’s show to fail. I don’t mean to be wish ill on a show usually. But, Leno’s show is actually putting writers and producers out of work because it’s 5 less hours a night of scripted tv. I have nothing against Jay, but it really is hurting a lot of people. Eventually, it will end up hurting NBC and Conan. NBC is becoming an industry joke. I hope Jeff Gaspin does something soon. Leno’s show is going to be killed by The Mentalist.
Nick in the here and now Leno in prime time isn’t just a hit for NBC but by anyone’s standard. Any of the networks would take a 3.4 in the demo, especially at 10PM and proclaim said show the new hit of the season. Having said that it is ridiculously early in the case of Leno to be declaring it a success (or a failure). Its going to take months to really work out how the Leno play has worked out for NBC and even then we won’t know the full picture because we won’t have all the facts and figures needed to make that call.
As things stand I expect Leno will drop another point over the coming weeks to settle in the mid-low 2 range, which will still be above a lot of what NBC’s schedule was pulling last year (and probably this year) and will be pulling in a healthy profit for NBC. Its going to be interesting to see how people react when Leno inevitably pulls in stronger numbers than beloved scripted shows.