Mon 28 Sep 2009
EARLY SEASON PREDICTIONS
Posted by Nick C under Stupid Things Nick C Does
[37] Comments
It’s always fun to make fun predictions. So I’m going to throw some out there, and feel free to throw some of your own out there.
HEROES numbers will be up from last week, but start trending down a few weeks out. I’m expect a 2.3 before November.
TRAUMA will bomb after HEROES but still probably get above a 2.0
LENO will continue to hover above a 1.5 and continue to make NBC money.
MERCY will be the first NBC program to be “let go.”
HOUSE won’t hold most of its premiere numbers, but still be the most watched scripted show on Monday.
LIE TO ME will debut with solid numbers now that it has a strong lead in. HOUSE/LIE TO ME is a great combo.
GLEE will continue to amuse my female friends but seriously annoy the hell out of me.
FRINGE will continue to drop until JJ throws a fit worthy of Shatner.
V will bomb. Because it’s V in name only.
FLASH FORWARD won’t hold up, but will still be successful.
COUGAR TOWN will continue to get good numbers because people like hot old women who prey on younger men.
NCIS will continue to grow. It may average close to 20M viewers for the season, proving it can still be done by a scripted show.
DEXTER will have its best season since season 1, and remind people that SHOWTIME might make better TV than HBO right now.
DOLLHOUSE will slowly rebound and finally average out at 1.2 in the demo, get a back 9 ordered, and a 3rd season. TV BY THE NUMBERS will start removing Fridays from their index.
Someone at SaveTSCC will convince more idiots to donate more money because the campaigns “are working!” when what that really means, is “it’s working as great supplemental income for me!”
People will watch the Olympics.
People won’t watch MELROSE PLACE.
CHUCK will come back with numbers that make sense to keep it going. Thank SUBWAY.
DVR numbers will get so crazy that FOX will feel stupid for abandoning the RemoteFree TV concept.
Advertisers will want to pay less money and blame it on DVR.
PSYCHE will continue to make fun of THE MENTALIST but continue to also not have THE MENTALISTS ratings.
MONK will find his wife’s killer.
BURN NOTICE will come back larger than it left following its normal trend.
THE DAILY SHOW and BILL MAHER are still sadly, the best place to get your news.
The ROMAN POLANSKI TRIAL if it happens, will break OJ numbers.
Dawn Ostroff will get fired, but so will The CW.
and…..
Someone will finally cast Serinda Swan in a real role.
Good predictions. I agree about V, its going to bomb. I don’t understand the incentive to watch beyond the Pilot. And after watching the premiere of Heroes I can imagine the people at NBC are rather worried. I don’t see that show ever recovering.
I am disappointed in Fringe’s numbers. I recently gave that show another shot and rather like it now. Very excited to see what happens for Season 2. I hope it can rebound. I think FOX made a mistake thinking it could stand fully on its own just yet.
I think the key for Chuck is going to be consistency. If it can keep the numbers it ended last season with, I think it’ll be okay for years. Any more dips down to 2.1 and I think NBC may start looking for ways to break the bad news to Subway.
Also agree on Remote Free TV. It worked. It was nearly impossible to flip or do anything other than sit through the commercial when they only give you 60 seconds.
well, you were correct re: Dollhouse Pick-up from last year but I find it really difficult to believe that rating will increase. How would this happen?
I kinda see it dropping to .8 & staying that way.
buffywrestling, easy: more people watch.
It has a good buzz right now, the episodes are actually pretty good. Great compared to early episodes from last season.
Nick, do you think Burn Notice will be moved to NBC if it will bring high 2 in the demo?
Heroes will stay pretty much in the 2.2-2.5 range, and NBC will air the final two episodes in February. Kring will use the dialogue from the Lost Comic-Con panel in the finale, and this will be the coolest thing the show has ever done.
Trauma will also be in the 2.2-2.5 range, leading to the question of just what NBC airs there between the 13 episode order and the Olympics.
Leno will drop down to 1.7ish for new episodes, and 2.0ish for repeat weeks. There will be a lot of harping over whether Conan’s numbers are due to Leno or Conan.
Mercy will… possibly get additional episodes to cover until the Olympics. Depends on whether the October airing of L&O in the slot does better or not.
House will take second on Mondays to the Lorre block.
Lie To Me will do mid 3s behind House. Just what Fox does with it in Spring is the question: Banished to Fridays? Not given a backorder (but not canceled) to see how spring Pilots shake out? A storyline to watch.
Glee will slowly drop to mid 2s but improve behind AI.
Fringe… will suck it up and stay in the slot. Fridays is the only other option for it.
V is already canceled, and we all know it. Good ratings due to nostalgia for first two weeks, then drops like a stone, episodes 5+ are never even filmed.
FlashForward will drop to 3.0ish. Renewal in 10 not set in stone.
Cougar Town & Modern Family will also drop to high 2.0s. Question is when ABC moves the two comedies to Dancing padding and turns the hours back to Lost repeat/Lost.
Dollhouse’s fate depends entirely on what Fox does with Lie to Me.
The Roman Polanski Trial already happened in 1977, and he was convicted. Any possible retrial will get Spector-like coverage in the audience that cared about that trial and utterly ignored elsewhere.
Edit: The CW will survive into 2010, aiming for both sexes, 18-34. Ostroff will not be around though.
Still wish they’d involve Serinda Swan in a Smallville spin-off of some sort… or at the very least, have her show up again this season. She was one of the show’s best casting choices last season.
Craig, I’d watch that spin off. While I liked her as Zantana (is that right?) I really liked her on REAPER, she stole that whole episode with the 3 minutes of screen time she had.
Well she is ridiculously hot.
All good predictions. Only one I’m a bit dubious about is DOLLHOUSE. Although I’m not a huge fan of the show I do think there ought to be a place for it somewhere on TV and those numbers last week really stank. I suppose the only way is up.
I’ll be interested to see how the Polanski thing pans out. Not that I think a trial is the likely outcome. As Tom said he’s already been convicted.
Bit of a mess really, much of which can be laid at the original judge’s door. That’s Polanski’s only realistic line really. Getting the whole thing thrown out. This is all assuming he’ll even be extradited though.
Nick, she was Zatanna. Looked like she jumped off a comic book page, and was that right mix of hot enough to appeal to male viewers, but not to the level of threatening female viewers.
I felt that same quality from Laura Vandervoort; it was just unfortunate that Kara never had a decent story arc. Interesting to note though that her return episode of Smallville last year was one of the highest-rated.
Regarding Glee,
While you may not like Glee personally, Dawn’s strategy at the CW is of course to build amongst the key young female demographic.
And Glee’s big success in that demo really makes it tough for her in that time slot, right?
I don’t know about Mercy, it’s a weak show in a weak time slot, Trauma appears to be a weak show in a competitive slot and Parks and Recreation is the same, I think one of those will be “let go” before Mercy.
Most of the others seem pretty likely, although Glee’s full season order for numbers that are only ok seems a bit puzzeling, maybe it cleans up in a narrow, super rich demographic.
HEROES – I’ve got to believe that it’s trending down starting this week.
MELROSE PLACE – I think that airing a repeat of MP against Glee, only one day after the initial episode airs is going to produce absurdly bad ratings. I’m not sure if it’s actually possible, but how about a .3 share with 400k viewers?
Dollhouse- Drops in ratings and gets let go after 13 episodes.
Chuck- continues to get average rating but Subway deal will push it in the renew column.
Cleveland Show. – Die horribly and get no more episodes beyond the ridiculous number already ordered by Fox.
Glee – Continues to be seriously funny and eventually stabilizes at good ratings but not great ones.
Fringe – Stabilizes at decent rating but still skirt the danger zone on occasion.
Heroes – The writers will continue to not know what they are doing. The show will continue to hope that other NBC show do badly and hopes it looks good by comparison
Ken I disagree on Glee’s ratings only being OK – I think they’re much better than that.
Its true that the total viewers aren’t great but demo wise Glee is performing very well for Fox, in terms of scripted drama I believe I’m right in saying it was only behind House last week in the demo’s. I suspect Lie To Me will move ahead of it this week unless something goes very wrong for Lie To Me or very right for Glee. You also have to take into account that with young women Glee is very big – if memory serves it pulled a 5.0 in women 18-34 2 weeks ago, which likely played a large part in its back 9 order.
Plus Glee is quite possibly the perfect companion show for Idol mid season and given that had to be a large part of the reason for green lighting the show in the first place it wouldn’t have made much sense not to give a proper run out of Idol.
In terms of some predictions
Heroes will continue to sink but NBC will stubbornly stick with it to the end of the season because they have nothing else and bigger problems. Plus it will probably still make a profit for NBCU.
Trauma and Mercy will both die in the ratings but only one of them will get pulled. My money’s on Mercy getting axed.
Parks & Recreations will stick around until mid season when it’ll be pulled in favour of 100 Questions, which will promptly flop as well.
The Mentalist will grow stronger in the 10PM hour for CBS whilst CSI will continue its recent slide. By the end of the season The Mentalist will be out performing CSI, leaving CBS will a dilemma for next season.
Everyone will proclaim Dollhouse dead again (myself included) but it’ll some how pick up more new episodes either as a back 9 or a third season of 13 episodes. My guess is a back 9 paired up with Lie To Me on Friday.
Fringe should rebound slightly over the coming weeks and settle in a mid-high 2 by the end of the season. This should get it cancelled but for various reasons probably won’t. It should stay on Thursday’s next season but probably won’t.
Cougar Town and Modern Family should stay relatively strong for ABC but won’t because the first hour of the new comedy blockk will drag them down.
FlashForward will continue to be promoted as the new Lost, which will alienate viewers. It’ll drop but not so low that it dies.
Are you really saying that a 1.2 rating for Dollhouse would be enough for the show to get the back 9?
Gusar, heck a 1.1 might do it. My understanding is it costs so little it won’t take much.
I’ve said this before but I think Dollhouse’s future will be decided more by the performance of everything else on Fox than its own performance. If Fox gets themselves into a position where they need the space (which is possible) then it’ll need to prove its worth ratings wise (which doesn’t look good) but if the space is there I think they’ll keep it.
I’d actually be interested to know whether Dollhouse is cheap enough for them to bump it into the summer, I’d assume it is if a a ow 1 is going to be enough to keep it alive. It might be worth considering the possibility that Dollhouse will run from summer through into the start of the fall season (so it would be airing its final episodes now), which might actually work out much better for it numbers wise.
As part of the (hopeful) possibility of a CHUCK S4, Subway is going to have to see a return on it’s investment. Subway was KEY to S3, and I think it still will remain KEY for the future.
CHUCK fans are going to still need to down those footlongs on Monday nights to keep the show on the air during S3 and hopefully into S4 just as voraciously as they downed them to keep the show from getting the axe after S2.
A few predictions:
Accidently on Purpose gets bumped by Rules of Engagement by the end of November.
Big Bang Theory consistently beats Two and a Half Men in the ratings.
Hank is DOA.
So You Think You Can Dance is a mistake in the fall.
Glee’s ratings become a concern, at least until the return of American Idol.
Heroes, despite the ratings slump is neither the first cancellation nor the first show moved by NBC.
First cancellation/removal from schedule at NBC, Parks and Recreation (before Mercy or Trauma); at CBS, Accidentally on Purpose (before Gary Unmarried); Fox, Bothers (before Dollhouse); ABC, Hank (before The Forgotten).
Parks & Rec is my choice for first NBC casualty. It has had it’s chance and the relative success of Community is the nail in the coffin. Community, btw is the safest of all new shows this season – it has longevity appeal thats tough to see in most others.
We all know Heroes is on its last leg. It’s really up to the writers to consistently deliver in the next 4 episodes or those meager numbers crash hard.
The network Mentalist may continue to out perform the cable Psyche, but I’ll still laugh at every Mentalist reference because Psyche pwns. Bum, bum, bum waffles!
Mercy will.. gasp.. be the “new” Medium and act as filler. It’s cheaper to produce than Trauma and therefore Trauma will find its way to the axe first. Mercy will get to hang on just to spite almost everyone.
Glee will be consistent with current numbers but have random huge spikes in viewership.
Hank will be the first big 4 network show to bite the dust because its completely unwatchable and no one cares about Kelsey Grammar.
Fox will figure out a better lead or swap/ follow for Dollhouse because really- Brothers? It won’t jump past 1.2 but it can be consistent with a better pairing.
I will kick myself harder every Friday night for not finding Monk earlier. The finale may kill me.
And finally, my mom will still not be persuaded that the dancers on DWTS are bad dancers and real talent is found over on Fox and that there are no less than 673 better programs on Monday nights (I exaggerate, but barely).
Hi Nick, TVbytheNumbers is already predicting Castle will fail. As per my prediction last year, I feel ABC is happy with the 9 million average viewers they are getting with Castle. If Castle continues to carry those type of numbers like it did last year there will be a third season.
Like Dollhouse I think there are becoming other factors other than 18-49 live ratings that the networks are seriously looking at.
Thanks, Lizard
Lizardman, TVBTN is not predicting Castle to fail, as was explained several times over there. The way the Renew/Cancel Index works is that it shows what the future would look like if today were May. Last week, the first week of the season, Castle was the lowest rated scripted show in the demo on ABC. Period. ABC could not have been happy with that, no matter what its viewer numbers are. Now, this week, Castle already has one show that is rated lower than it, and will have Ugly Betty as well, and possibly a few shows from tonight’s line up. That will improve its standings on the RCI, which will be reflected next week.
Julia, I stand corrected. I guess it is the way the titles of the blogs come up. Sort of sensationalism.
It seems like they feel there is one thing only which determines a successful show. Which is understandable as it is their business to work with and show the numbers.
As I have stated a few times over there I feel that the networks have changed their views on just the 18-49 numbers as the only factor. Show costs, other networks success, look at Leno, etc…
Just my opinion. Thanks, Lizard
The problem is, the only people who know all the other things that go into renewal and cancellation decisions are network executives. The minute they start handing that info over to Robert and Bill, they will be sure to include it.
18-49 still, by and large, is the best indicator of a show’s success. Half-hour sitcoms and Friday shows were the exception last year, and Bill and Robert acknowledge that. I believe that there is a note now about how half-hour sitcoms don’t work with the system, and I know there is a note about Fridays. As for Leno, that falls under reality (though Leno is scripted), which has always been acknowledged to not work with the system.
Gotcha, not to make this a love fest, but I love Bill and Robert (no not literally) for the great info they impart as I enjoy Nick for his point of view.
I do believe these sites do have an effect on people and their viewing habits and sometimes sensational headlines get people to read, but most people are lazy (sorry for the stereotype) so they just read the headlines and gloss over the actual info.
Matter of fact there are posts constantly from the guys complaining that people should just read the post at the top!
It’s the reason I stopped watching the news on TV. The sensational coming at ten promos just bug me a lot!
Sorry to take over your blog Nick.
Thanks, Lizard
NBC seems to put too much stock in this show.
With Heroes above 60 episodes already could NBC with some help from Universal try to push it to 100 for syndication? That would guarantee two more seasons.
@some guy named john
Would Heroes even go the syndication route it it reached 100 episodes? I mean, it’s a serialized series and not a procedural. Do serialized series usually go into syndication? I thought only procedurals did.
Could this show be the death of Chuck. Two spy romances on the schedule next year. Sounds like what Chuck should be but is not. http://www.thewrap.com/ind-column/jj-abrams-getting-spy-business-again-8049
Interesting, but still early days. It may well never see the light of day, and CHUCK may not even be on the air by then.
Also just because it has JJ Abrams name attached doesn’t mean it’ll be an automatic hit. If comedy spy dramas were fashionable then CHUCK would be doing better afterall. Vampire spies though……
Its far too early to be speculating on this but I will say this if Chuck isn’t strong enough to stand on its own merits by its fourth season then it shouldn’t be on the air.
@ grr_argh
Heroes at 100 is a great offering for many reasons, it can be sold to other networks to run from beginning to end, or in some kind of marathon, or even as new show to some foreign markets. While a show that is very reliant on its storyline does have some problems running in syndication it has happened in the past. I could see SyFy running Heroes in this matter, regardless of it being a Universal/NBC owned network
Looks like NBC is picking this up. What does this mean for the future of Chuck. Two spy comedies with romance on the same network.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/television/news/e3ie41d1967dbc1d096585fb6294b9c9814
Could this JJ Abrams spy show be the show that NBC was looking for the summer that Chuck would launch. Would this give them enough time to develop for June.
@some guy named john
oh, okay. i was just wondering because I never see 24 in syndication and they’re well over 100 episodes. But then again, 24 is as serialized as you can get.
You’re right, I can see SyFy running Heroes just like they run LOST every midnight.
I think most of your predictions are spot-on, Nick. Just for the record, though – it’s spelled “Psych”, not “Psyche”.
“TV BY THE NUMBERS will start removing Fridays from their index.”
LOOOOOOL *g*
It is a bit early for this speculation but I wonder who is going to inherit those incriminating photos that kept Jim Belushi on the air for so many years and now are apparantly keeping Brad Garrett on Fridays(I can’t think of any other reason except blackmail that would have allowed those two shows to stay on tv so long). Will Kelsey Gramer get ahold of them to keep Hank on the air, perhaps Christian Slater finds them to keep Forgotten on, maybe Micheal Strahan, I suspect it is a guy thing. I just don’t know if they are incriminating enough to keep two shows alive at the same time.